Certra runs thousands of simulations over your project schedule and turns duration uncertainty and risk events into probabilities — P10, P50, P80 dates, the activities that drive them, and a report your board can read.
Every deterministic plan compresses thousands of possible outcomes into a single date — and hides how likely that date actually is. Certra makes the probability explicit before you commit to it.
The CPM finish is one path through the network with every estimate taken at face value. How much confidence does it carry? The plan cannot say.
Simulation turns the same network into a distribution: the deterministic date turns out to be P28 — and the date worth committing to is P80.
The workspace follows the analysis itself — three sections, in the order a risk engineer works.
Bring the project in from Primavera, Microsoft Project, Safran or Excel. Define three-point duration uncertainty and a register of discrete risk events with probability and impact.
Thousands of iterations sample every duration and risk, re-run the critical-path method each time, and build the full distribution of finish dates — Monte Carlo or Latin Hypercube sampling.
S-curves, tornado, criticality, probabilistic Gantt and percentile tables — plus an executive summary you can edit and export for the steering committee.
The tornado ranks every activity and risk event by how much of the finish spread it explains. Mitigation effort goes where the schedule is won or lost — not where the loudest stakeholder points.
The deterministic plan has one critical path; across 10,000 iterations it shifts. Criticality shows how often each activity really sits on it — drawn onto a probabilistic Gantt of the whole schedule.
The AI analyst answers with the numbers of the current simulation and explores what-if scenarios — mitigate a risk, crash an activity — while the charts follow the scenario being discussed.
Dense, flat, keyboard-friendly, every figure in tabular mono — an instrument, not a dashboard.
Cumulative probability of completion against the deterministic date, with P10–P90 marked and the contingency each confidence level implies.
Discrete risks with probability and impact, mapped to the activities they hit — simulated alongside duration uncertainty, not instead of it.
Per-activity percentiles, float and criticality — sortable, searchable, and consistent with every chart on screen.
Every simulation is snapshotted: compare runs as the schedule and the risk register evolve from month to month.
A full Excel results workbook and a board-ready PowerPoint deck, generated from the run — no screenshots, no retyping.
A drafted, editable summary of the run in plain language — the page you hand to the steering committee.
No conversion step: Certra reads the files your planning tools already produce.
Certra is self-hosted: schedules and results stay on your servers, and access is governed by your administrators.
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